Industries I am looking to trade in 2026

Here are some theories I have on the market, based primarily on technical analysis (VSA) but secondarily my layman's theories on the fundamentals. Will revisit @ the EOY to see how I did.

Bullish

Industry: Long-term Treasury Bonds

Symbol: TLT

Reasoning

Trump is going to pressure/screw-over the next person in charge of the Federal Reserve and when interest rates are cut, it will cause bond prices to balloon

Industry: Semiconductors

Symbol: SMH

Reasoning

Not exactly going out on a limb here, but I think that the industry will continue to lead the market for the first half of the year at the least

Bearish

Industry: Precious Metals

Symbol: GLD

Reasoning

• Price ran higher out of fear even as the stock market grinded higher. I think that if/when the market does turn, precious metals will already be overbought and will sell off at the same time. Anticipating it happening more around Q2 2026

Industry: Software As A Serivce (aka SaaS)

Symbol: ADBE, DUOL, DOCU, INTU, CRM, etc

Reasoning

• Half of SaaS was never selling software—they were selling you permission to skip learning to code. As people get more familiar w/ Claude Code and the likes, the moat that these companies have disappears.